There was a great article in The Post this week about the natural flow pattern of streams. So often nowadays streams are directed through culverts, but in the case of unusually heavy rain the culverts are overcome and the streams then follow their natural path, which may be through someone's house or garden.
Here's a comment sent by email "...the question we ask ourselves so often is while we agree with all that you say, and it all makes so much sense, why is it that others do not understand? Why is it that we seem so powerless to actually do something concrete around mitigation strategies, tighter controls on building permits, etc? It can’t all be about ‘money’ and inertia, can it? "
Interestingpost thanks “In the Ahr … warming would have increased the rainfall intensity and amounts by as much 19 percent.”
Missing from most climate modelling is a focus on the cause of climate change, as warming is only a symptom. Elevated (and ever-rising) CO2 is changing plant (and mycorrhiza) processing of water directly (independently of warming). Several studies predict increasing runoff in the range 5-10% but no studies exist for sub- 500ppm. I think it is already occurring. A very useful paper
Relatedly I’m showing a paper this week at the LaRGE Conference (Landslide Risk and Geo-Education) in Queenstown on what I believe is another effect of eCO2 - increasing slope movement due to soil biological and physical changes.
Thanks NigelC. That's very interesting. Retallack's theme won't be an issue for our flash floods, but your work may be. Let us all know more after the Queenstown meeting.
There was a great article in The Post this week about the natural flow pattern of streams. So often nowadays streams are directed through culverts, but in the case of unusually heavy rain the culverts are overcome and the streams then follow their natural path, which may be through someone's house or garden.
Here's a comment sent by email "...the question we ask ourselves so often is while we agree with all that you say, and it all makes so much sense, why is it that others do not understand? Why is it that we seem so powerless to actually do something concrete around mitigation strategies, tighter controls on building permits, etc? It can’t all be about ‘money’ and inertia, can it? "
Interestingpost thanks “In the Ahr … warming would have increased the rainfall intensity and amounts by as much 19 percent.”
Missing from most climate modelling is a focus on the cause of climate change, as warming is only a symptom. Elevated (and ever-rising) CO2 is changing plant (and mycorrhiza) processing of water directly (independently of warming). Several studies predict increasing runoff in the range 5-10% but no studies exist for sub- 500ppm. I think it is already occurring. A very useful paper
Retallack, G.J, and Giselle D. Conde, G.D. 2020 Flooding Induced by Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. GSA Today, 30, 10. https://rock.geosociety.org/net/gsatoday/science/G427A/GSATG427A.pdf
Relatedly I’m showing a paper this week at the LaRGE Conference (Landslide Risk and Geo-Education) in Queenstown on what I believe is another effect of eCO2 - increasing slope movement due to soil biological and physical changes.
Thanks NigelC. That's very interesting. Retallack's theme won't be an issue for our flash floods, but your work may be. Let us all know more after the Queenstown meeting.